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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Almeida won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1398

Yves JabouinvsThomas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Thomas Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:18

Style matchupYves Jabouin: Well-roundedvsThomas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Thomas Almeida wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Thomas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thomas Almeida at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thomas Almeida is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Yves Jabouin has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yves Jabouin

Red Corner

Thomas Almeida

Blue Corner

+335

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1355

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves Jabouin

oldest →

KOvs Brad Pickett · Sep 12

vs Dustin Pague · Jun 13

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14

vs Mike Easton · Jun 14

SUBvs Felipe Arantes · Aug 15

latest

Thomas AlmeidaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves JabouinMetricThomas Almeida

3.06

Strikes / min

4.84

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

62%

Strike defense

61%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

0.17

82%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves JabouinThomas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Jabouin(10 fights)Thomas Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.6|Blue +42.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves JabouinTargetThomas Almeida

By target zone

28% acc · 60%

Head

31% acc · 58%

62% acc · 40%

Body

78% acc · 23%

Leg

75% acc · 19%

By position

34% acc · 90%

Distance

39% acc · 77%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

54% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Jabouin rounds

even

Thomas Almeida rounds

Round 1Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:24

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 56

Sig Strikes

31 / 75

35%

Sig Str %

41%

20 / 56

Total Strikes

32 / 76

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thomas Almeida	31 / 75	32 / 76	0 / 0	0
1	Yves Jabouin	20 / 56	20 / 56	1 / 1	0

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10