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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Pablo Garza won · SUB R1
Elo1355
Yves Jabouin
Elo1490
Pablo Garza

Yves JabouinvsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Pablo Garza won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:31

Style matchupYves Jabouin: Well-roundedvsPablo Garza: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Pablo Garza wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Pablo Garza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pablo Garza at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yves Jabouin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Yves Jabouin has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Pablo Garza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yves Jabouin
Red Corner
VS
Pablo Garza
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1355
Elo
1490
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'1"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves JabouinL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Dustin Pague · Jun 13
L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14
W
vs Mike Easton · Jun 14
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Apr 15
L
SUBvs Felipe Arantes · Aug 15
latest
Pablo Garza
oldest →
W
KOvs Fredson Paixao · Dec 10
L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 11
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · May 12
W
vs Mark Hominick · Nov 12
L
SUBvs Diego Brandao · Apr 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves JabouinMetricPablo Garza
3.06
Strikes / min
3.37
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
62%
Strike defense
50%
1.94
TDs / 15 min
0.94
82%
Takedown defense
15%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1516Strikes— vs 3.0Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
Yves JabouinPablo Garza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Yves Jabouin(10 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.0|Blue +135.0
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves JabouinTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

6
26% acc · 38%
Head
10
40% acc · 38%
1
50% acc · 6%
Body
8
73% acc · 31%
9
75% acc · 56%
Leg
8
67% acc · 31%

By position

16
43% acc · 100%
Distance
11
37% acc · 42%
0
Clinch
7
70% acc · 27%
0
Ground
8
100% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yves Jabouin rounds
0
even
1
Pablo Garza rounds
Round 1Pablo Garza edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:41
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
16 / 37
Sig Strikes
26 / 48
43%
Sig Str %
54%
16 / 37
Total Strikes
33 / 55
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
0:41
Ctrl Time
0:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pablo Garza26 / 4833 / 550 / 11
1Yves Jabouin16 / 3716 / 370 / 00

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6