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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Felipe Arantes won · SUB R1
Elo1355
Yves Jabouin
Elo1366

Yves JabouinvsFelipe ArantesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Felipe Arantes won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:21

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Felipe Arantes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Felipe Arantes threatens submissions; Yves Jabouin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Yves Jabouin has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Felipe Arantes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yves Jabouin
Red Corner
VS
Felipe Arantes
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-260
(72%)
1355
Elo
1366
47
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves Jabouin
oldest →
L
KOvs Brad Pickett · Sep 12
W
vs Dustin Pague · Jun 13
L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14
W
vs Mike Easton · Jun 14
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Apr 15
latest
Felipe ArantesL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andre Fili · Oct 14
W
SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16
L
vs Erik Perez · Nov 16
L
vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17
L
KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves JabouinMetricFelipe Arantes
3.06
Strikes / min
2.37
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
62%
Strike defense
64%
1.94
TDs / 15 min
0.93
82%
Takedown defense
41%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1511 vs 1499Strikes32.8 vs 35.7Takedowns1.2 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.43Form-0.4 vs -0.2
Yves JabouinFelipe Arantes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Yves Jabouin(10 fights)Felipe Arantes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -10.8|Blue +10.8
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -182.0|Blue +182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves JabouinTargetFelipe Arantes

By target zone

5
56% acc · 100%
Head
2
67% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
33% acc · 40%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 25%
3
75% acc · 60%
Ground
3
100% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Yves Jabouin rounds
0
even
0
Felipe Arantes rounds
Round 1Yves Jabouin edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control3:39
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 10
Sig Strikes
4 / 6
50%
Sig Str %
66%
18 / 26
Total Strikes
8 / 10
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
3:39
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Felipe Arantes4 / 68 / 100 / 11
1Yves Jabouin5 / 1018 / 262 / 20

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11