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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Yves Jabouin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1353

Yves JabouinvsDustin PagueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Yves Jabouin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYves Jabouin: Well-roundedvsDustin Pague: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Yves Jabouin wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Yves Jabouin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Jabouin at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Yves Jabouin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Yves Jabouin has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Yves Jabouin has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Dustin Pague has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yves Jabouin

Red Corner

Dustin Pague

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1355

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves JabouinL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Pickett · Sep 12

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14

vs Mike Easton · Jun 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Apr 15

SUBvs Felipe Arantes · Aug 15

latest

Dustin PagueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Albert · Dec 11

SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12

vs Ken Stone · Jun 12

vs Chico Camus · Aug 12

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves JabouinMetricDustin Pague

3.06

Strikes / min

1.65

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

62%

Strike defense

41%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

1.03

82%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves JabouinDustin Pague

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Jabouin(10 fights)Dustin Pague(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves JabouinTargetDustin Pague

By target zone

65% acc · 75%

Head

85% acc · 73%

75% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

46% acc · 30%

Distance

71% acc · 33%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

86% acc · 60%

Ground

88% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Jabouin rounds

even

Dustin Pague rounds

Round 1Yves Jabouin edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:07

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Dustin Pague edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:39

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 3Yves Jabouin edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 29

Sig Strikes

15 / 18

68.3%

Sig Str %

86%

54 / 74

Total Strikes

51 / 63

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:07

Ctrl Time

4:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Pague	2 / 2	6 / 6	0 / 0	5
1	Yves Jabouin	7 / 10	28 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Pague	10 / 12	33 / 43	1 / 1	1
2	Yves Jabouin	8 / 10	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Pague	3 / 4	12 / 14	0 / 1	1
3	Yves Jabouin	5 / 9	16 / 24	1 / 1	0

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6