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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yves Edwards won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1354

Elo1353

Yves EdwardsvsRafaello OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Yves Edwards won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:44

Style matchupYves Edwards: Well-roundedvsRafaello Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yves Edwards wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Yves Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Edwards at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yves Edwards is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafaello Oliveira has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Yves Edwards has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

Rafaello Oliveira

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1354

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Rafaello OliveiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Winner · Mar 10

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11

vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13

KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricRafaello Oliveira

2.91

Strikes / min

2.19

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

66%

Strike defense

59%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

2.49

69%

Takedown defense

11%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsRafaello Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetRafaello Oliveira

By target zone

33% acc · 69%

Head

15% acc · 64%

71% acc · 24%

Body

22% acc · 18%

60% acc · 7%

Leg

57% acc · 18%

By position

26% acc · 50%

Distance

19% acc · 95%

69% acc · 21%

Clinch

25% acc · 5%

92% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

Round 1Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:34

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 108

Sig Strikes

22 / 117

38%

Sig Str %

20%

55 / 121

Total Strikes

28 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafaello Oliveira	10 / 74	14 / 79	0 / 2
1	Yves Edwards	14 / 51	15 / 52	0 / 0
2	Rafaello Oliveira	12 / 43	14 / 45	0 / 1
2	Yves Edwards	28 / 57	40 / 69	0 / 0

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6