← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yves Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1490

Yves EdwardsvsJohn GundersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Yves Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYves Edwards: Well-roundedvsJohn Gunderson: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: John Gunderson wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Yves Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Gunderson at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yves Edwards has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).
Yves Edwards has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

John Gunderson

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

John Gunderson

oldest →

vs Mark Holst · Jun 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricJohn Gunderson

2.91

Strikes / min

1.04

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

1.71

66%

Strike defense

58%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

1.67

69%

Takedown defense

11%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsJohn Gunderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)John Gunderson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.2|Blue +136.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Grappler Score

Red +48.8|Blue -48.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetJohn Gunderson

By target zone

38% acc · 78%

Head

7% acc · 33%

82% acc · 17%

Body

71% acc · 33%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

63% acc · 33%

By position

31% acc · 37%

Distance

16% acc · 80%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

55% acc · 56%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

John Gunderson rounds

Round 1Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:04

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:52

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control4:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 125

Sig Strikes

15 / 82

43.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

98 / 177

Total Strikes

24 / 91

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:04

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Gunderson	5 / 26	5 / 26	0 / 1	2
1	Yves Edwards	14 / 27	28 / 42	1 / 1	1
2	John Gunderson	7 / 50	13 / 56	0 / 4	0
2	Yves Edwards	13 / 44	16 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	John Gunderson	3 / 6	6 / 9	0 / 1	0
3	Yves Edwards	27 / 54	54 / 88	0 / 0	0

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

John Gunderson

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2