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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yves Edwards won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1473

Yves EdwardsvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Yves Edwards won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:55

Style matchupYves Edwards: Well-roundedvsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Yves Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1354

Elo

1473

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 11

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricJeremy Stephens

2.91

Strikes / min

3.13

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

66%

Strike defense

57%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

1.10

69%

Takedown defense

61%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.7|Blue +118.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +164.0|Blue -164.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

31% acc · 63%

Head

17% acc · 60%

50% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 20%

67% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

32% acc · 75%

Distance

20% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 21

Sig Strikes

5 / 21

38%

Sig Str %

23%

12 / 26

Total Strikes

6 / 22

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	5 / 21	6 / 22	0 / 1	0
1	Yves Edwards	8 / 21	12 / 26	0 / 1	0

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27