Lightweight

3 Rounds

Isaac Vallie-Flagg won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Yves EdwardsvsIsaac Vallie-FlaggUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Isaac Vallie-Flagg won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYves Edwards: Well-roundedvsIsaac Vallie-Flagg: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yves Edwards wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Isaac Vallie-Flagg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Edwards at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Isaac Vallie-Flagg enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yves Edwards has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

Isaac Vallie-Flagg

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1354

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 11

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Isaac Vallie-FlaggL3 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Silverio · Jan 14

vs Takanori Gomi · Apr 14

vs Matt Wiman · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricIsaac Vallie-Flagg

2.91

Strikes / min

5.56

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

5.60

66%

Strike defense

45%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.20

69%

Takedown defense

58%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsIsaac Vallie-Flagg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)Isaac Vallie-Flagg(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetIsaac Vallie-Flagg

By target zone

39% acc · 55%

Head

26% acc · 62%

70% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 24%

92% acc · 21%

Leg

73% acc · 14%

By position

47% acc · 79%

Distance

29% acc · 68%

71% acc · 21%

Clinch

56% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

Isaac Vallie-Flagg rounds

Round 1Isaac Vallie-Flagg edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:08

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:43

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Isaac Vallie-Flagg edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 115

Sig Strikes

76 / 222

51%

Sig Str %

30.3%

64 / 125

Total Strikes

129 / 284

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	29 / 77	38 / 87	0 / 0
1	Yves Edwards	24 / 48	26 / 50	0 / 0
2	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	6 / 31	26 / 53	0 / 0
2	Yves Edwards	11 / 20	14 / 25	1 / 2
3	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	41 / 114	65 / 144	0 / 0
3	Yves Edwards	23 / 47	24 / 50	0 / 1

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Isaac Vallie-Flagg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4