Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daron Cruickshank won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1356

Yves EdwardsvsDaron CruickshankUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Daron Cruickshank won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYves Edwards: Well-roundedvsDaron Cruickshank: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

Daron Cruickshank

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 11

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricDaron Cruickshank

2.91

Strikes / min

2.88

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

66%

Strike defense

57%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

2.04

69%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsDaron Cruickshank

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetDaron Cruickshank

By target zone

13% acc · 21%

Head

16% acc · 34%

68% acc · 27%

Body

58% acc · 57%

89% acc · 52%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

Daron Cruickshank rounds

Round 1Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 126

Sig Strikes

44 / 142

38%

Sig Str %

30.3%

48 / 128

Total Strikes

44 / 142

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daron Cruickshank	14 / 44	14 / 44	0 / 0
1	Yves Edwards	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Daron Cruickshank	18 / 57	18 / 57	0 / 0
2	Yves Edwards	18 / 53	18 / 53	0 / 0
3	Daron Cruickshank	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 1
3	Yves Edwards	13 / 33	13 / 35	0 / 0

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12