Lightweight

3 Rounds

Akbarh Arreola won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1356

Yves EdwardsvsAkbarh ArreolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Akbarh Arreola won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:52

Model Prediction: Akbarh Arreola wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Akbarh Arreola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Akbarh Arreola at +245 American odds

+$245 profit

$345 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Akbarh Arreola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Akbarh Arreola threatens submissions; Yves Edwards has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Yves Edwards has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Yves Edwards has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yves Edwards

Red Corner

Akbarh Arreola

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yves EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 11

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

latest

Akbarh ArreolaL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Tiago Trator · Jul 14

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 15

KOvs Jake Matthews · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yves EdwardsMetricAkbarh Arreola

2.91

Strikes / min

2.32

2.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

66%

Strike defense

56%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

1.07

69%

Takedown defense

33%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yves EdwardsAkbarh Arreola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yves Edwards(10 fights)Akbarh Arreola(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yves EdwardsTargetAkbarh Arreola

By target zone

14% acc · 20%

Head

40% acc · 67%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 80%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

31% acc · 80%

Distance

37% acc · 58%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

Ground

75% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yves Edwards rounds

even

Akbarh Arreola rounds

Round 1Akbarh Arreola edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 14

Sig Strikes

12 / 26

35%

Sig Str %

46%

5 / 14

Total Strikes

12 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Akbarh Arreola	12 / 26	12 / 26	1 / 1	1
1	Yves Edwards	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0	0

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Akbarh Arreola

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4