← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1359

Elo1521

Yusuke KasuyavsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:06

Model Prediction: Yusuke Kasuya wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yusuke Kasuya at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkanovski has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alexander Volkanovski has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yusuke Kasuya (53.5%).
Alexander Volkanovski has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yusuke Kasuya

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1359

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yusuke Kasuya

oldest →

vs Nick Hein · Sep 15

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yusuke KasuyaMetricAlexander Volkanovski

2.17

Strikes / min

5.99

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

48%

Strike defense

58%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

1.63

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.17Δ 4.85 — meaningful gap+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yusuke KasuyaAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yusuke Kasuya(2 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -162.1|Blue +162.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yusuke KasuyaTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

66% acc · 94%

50% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 4%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

38% acc · 75%

Distance

29% acc · 4%

50% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

68% acc · 90%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yusuke Kasuya rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:40

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 10

Sig Strikes

50 / 76

37.5%

Sig Str %

64.5%

7 / 13

Total Strikes

55 / 81

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

4:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkanovski	19 / 31	22 / 34	2 / 2
1	Yusuke Kasuya	3 / 6	6 / 9	1 / 2
2	Alexander Volkanovski	31 / 45	33 / 47	1 / 1
2	Yusuke Kasuya	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0

Yusuke Kasuya

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18