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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1371

Yushin OkamivsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:54

Model Prediction: Yushin Okami wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yushin Okami at -410 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Yushin Okami has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Yushin Okami has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yushin Okami (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yushin Okami

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1491

Elo

1371

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yushin Okami

oldest →

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 13

KOvs Jacare Souza · Sep 13

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Sep 17

vs Dhiego Lima · Apr 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Dec 18

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yushin OkamiMetricTim Boetsch

2.06

Strikes / min

2.93

2.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

60%

Strike defense

57%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

1.45

84%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yushin OkamiTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yushin Okami(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.1|Blue -120.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yushin OkamiTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

36% acc · 90%

Head

46% acc · 86%

100% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 7%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

33% acc · 66%

Distance

34% acc · 62%

Clinch

92% acc · 26%

59% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yushin Okami rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yushin Okami edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control4:02

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 75

Sig Strikes

42 / 93

28.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

43 / 91

Total Strikes

47 / 99

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:02

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Boetsch	21 / 53	21 / 53	0 / 1	0
1	Yushin Okami	14 / 42	14 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Tim Boetsch	0 / 13	4 / 18	0 / 0	1
2	Yushin Okami	15 / 28	29 / 44	1 / 2	0
3	Tim Boetsch	21 / 27	22 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Yushin Okami	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 0	0

Yushin Okami

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20