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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jacare Souza won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Yushin Okami
Elo1400
Jacare Souza

Yushin OkamivsJacare SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Jacare Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Yushin Okami wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yushin Okami at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Yushin Okami has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Yushin Okami (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yushin Okami
Red Corner
VS
Jacare Souza
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1491
Elo
1400
45
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yushin Okami
oldest →
W
vs Alan Belcher · Dec 12
W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 13
L
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Sep 17
W
vs Dhiego Lima · Apr 18
L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Dec 18
latest
Jacare SouzaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20
L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yushin OkamiMetricJacare Souza
2.06
Strikes / min
2.53
2.25
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
60%
Strike defense
62%
1.98
TDs / 15 min
2.57
84%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1571 vs 1522Strikes28.6 vs 8.0Takedowns1.6 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.47 vs 1.00Form0.6 vs 1.0
Yushin OkamiJacare Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Yushin Okami(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yushin OkamiTargetJacare Souza

By target zone

1
10% acc · 100%
Head
25
58% acc · 89%
0
0% acc
Body
2
50% acc · 7%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 4%

By position

1
9% acc · 100%
Distance
7
54% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
11
44% acc · 39%
0
Ground
10
100% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yushin Okami rounds
0
even
1
Jacare Souza rounds
Round 1Jacare Souza edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 11
Sig Strikes
28 / 48
9%
Sig Str %
58%
1 / 11
Total Strikes
29 / 49
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:27

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jacare Souza28 / 4829 / 490 / 10
1Yushin Okami1 / 111 / 110 / 00

Yushin Okami

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17