← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yushin Okami won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1490

Yushin OkamivsBuddy RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Yushin Okami won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:05

Model Prediction: Buddy Roberts wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Yushin Okami wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Buddy Roberts at +540 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Buddy Roberts has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Yushin Okami (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yushin Okami

Red Corner

Buddy Roberts

Blue Corner

-660

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

193 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yushin Okami

oldest →

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 13

KOvs Jacare Souza · Sep 13

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Sep 17

vs Dhiego Lima · Apr 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Dec 18

latest

Buddy Roberts

oldest →

vs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yushin OkamiMetricBuddy Roberts

2.06

Strikes / min

2.17

2.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

60%

Strike defense

70%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

0.00

84%

Takedown defense

76%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yushin OkamiBuddy Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yushin Okami(10 fights)Buddy Roberts(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +104.0|Blue -104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yushin OkamiTargetBuddy Roberts

By target zone

35% acc · 88%

Head

36% acc · 67%

100% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 20%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

29% acc · 23%

Distance

41% acc · 93%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

41% acc · 73%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yushin Okami rounds

even

Buddy Roberts rounds

Round 1Yushin Okami edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:11

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yushin Okami edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:18

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 68

Sig Strikes

15 / 35

43.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

54 / 116

Total Strikes

20 / 40

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:29

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Buddy Roberts	13 / 27	18 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Yushin Okami	19 / 55	31 / 72	1 / 4	0
2	Buddy Roberts	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	1
2	Yushin Okami	7 / 13	23 / 44	2 / 2	0

Yushin Okami

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Buddy Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2