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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Kunchenko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1382

Yushin OkamivsAleksei KunchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Aleksei Kunchenko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aleksei Kunchenko wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Aleksei Kunchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Kunchenko at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Yushin Okami (53.5%).
Yushin Okami has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yushin Okami

Red Corner

Aleksei Kunchenko

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1491

Elo

1382

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yushin Okami

oldest →

vs Alan Belcher · Dec 12

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 13

KOvs Jacare Souza · Sep 13

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Sep 17

vs Dhiego Lima · Apr 18

latest

Aleksei KunchenkoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Alves · Sep 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Aug 19

DECvs Elizeu Dos Santos · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yushin OkamiMetricAleksei Kunchenko

2.06

Strikes / min

3.67

2.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

60%

Strike defense

63%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

0.25

84%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yushin OkamiAleksei Kunchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yushin Okami(10 fights)Aleksei Kunchenko(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +109.5|Blue -109.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yushin OkamiTargetAleksei Kunchenko

By target zone

13% acc · 70%

Head

47% acc · 61%

67% acc · 20%

Body

73% acc · 15%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

85% acc · 24%

By position

18% acc · 100%

Distance

49% acc · 71%

Clinch

94% acc · 21%

Ground

75% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yushin Okami rounds

even

Aleksei Kunchenko rounds

Round 1Aleksei Kunchenko edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:42

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aleksei Kunchenko edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Aleksei Kunchenko edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:02

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 56

Sig Strikes

72 / 129

19.3%

Sig Str %

54.7%

10 / 56

Total Strikes

141 / 203

0 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksei Kunchenko	20 / 38	32 / 50	0 / 0
1	Yushin Okami	3 / 25	3 / 25	0 / 2
2	Aleksei Kunchenko	19 / 36	53 / 72	0 / 0
2	Yushin Okami	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 6
3	Aleksei Kunchenko	33 / 55	56 / 81	0 / 0
3	Yushin Okami	3 / 18	3 / 18	0 / 7

Yushin Okami

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Aleksei Kunchenko

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4