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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Adam Fugitt won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1471
Elo1475

Yusaku KinoshitavsAdam FugittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Adam Fugitt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:36

Style matchupYusaku Kinoshita: Pressure fightervsAdam Fugitt: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Adam Fugitt wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Adam Fugitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adam Fugitt at +285 American odds

+$285 profit

$385 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Adam Fugitt is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Yusaku Kinoshita has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Adam Fugitt has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yusaku Kinoshita
Red Corner
VS
Adam Fugitt
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
1471
Elo
1475
25
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yusaku Kinoshita
oldest →
L
KOvs Billy Ray Goff · Aug 23
latest
Adam FugittL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Jul 22
L
SUBvs Mike Malott · Jun 23
W
vs Josh Quinlan · Jun 24
L
KOvs Islam Dulatov · Jul 25
L
KOvs Ty Miller · Jan 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yusaku KinoshitaMetricAdam Fugitt
4.65
Strikes / min
4.88
5.12
Strikes absorbed / min
5.33
51%
Strike defense
51%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.63
50%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1483Strikes4.7 vs 4.7Takedowns0.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Yusaku KinoshitaAdam Fugitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Yusaku Kinoshita(2 fights)Adam Fugitt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Grappler Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yusaku KinoshitaTargetAdam Fugitt

By target zone

6
30% acc · 60%
Head
16
70% acc · 76%
1
100% acc · 10%
Body
4
57% acc · 19%
3
100% acc · 30%
Leg
1
33% acc · 5%

By position

10
42% acc · 100%
Distance
11
50% acc · 52%
0
Clinch
4
100% acc · 19%
0
Ground
6
86% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yusaku Kinoshita rounds
0
even
1
Adam Fugitt rounds
Round 1Adam Fugitt edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:01
21Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:53Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 24
Sig Strikes
21 / 33
41%
Sig Str %
63%
11 / 25
Total Strikes
33 / 54
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 7
0%
TD %
57%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
2:53

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Adam Fugitt21 / 3333 / 544 / 70
1Yusaku Kinoshita10 / 2411 / 250 / 10

Yusaku Kinoshita

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6