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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Youssef Zalal won · SUB R1
Elo1526
Elo1493
Jarno Errens

Youssef ZalalvsJarno ErrensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Youssef Zalal won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:52

Model Prediction: Youssef Zalal wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Youssef Zalal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Youssef Zalal threatens submissions; Jarno Errens has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Youssef Zalal has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Youssef Zalal (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Youssef Zalal
Red Corner
VS
Jarno Errens
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1526
Elo
1493
29
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Youssef Zalal
oldest →
W
SUBvs Billy Quarantillo · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Jack Shore · Nov 24
W
vs Calvin Kattar · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Oct 25
L
DECvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 26
latest
Jarno Errens
oldest →
L
vs William Gomis · Sep 22
L
vs SeungWoo Choi · Aug 23
W
vs Steven Nguyen · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Youssef ZalalMetricJarno Errens
2.78
Strikes / min
3.29
1.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
64%
Strike defense
61%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
33%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1485Strikes2.9 vs 3.3Takedowns2.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.40 vs 0.30Form0.8 vs 0.1
Youssef ZalalJarno Errens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Youssef Zalal(10 fights)Jarno Errens(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +33.3|Blue -33.3
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Youssef ZalalTargetJarno Errens

By target zone

2
100% acc · 20%
Head
3
14% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 10%
Body
3
100% acc · 50%
7
78% acc · 70%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

10
83% acc · 100%
Distance
6
23% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Youssef Zalal rounds
0
even
0
Jarno Errens rounds
Round 1Youssef Zalal edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 12
Sig Strikes
6 / 26
83%
Sig Str %
23%
10 / 12
Total Strikes
7 / 27
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jarno Errens6 / 267 / 270 / 00
1Youssef Zalal10 / 1210 / 121 / 21

Youssef Zalal

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Jarno Errens

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4