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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · U-DEC

Elo1526

Elo1520

Youssef ZalalvsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

U-DEC

Style matchupYoussef Zalal: Submission grapplervsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Youssef Zalal wins(84.5%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Youssef Zalal at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Youssef Zalal (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Youssef Zalal

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1526

Elo

1520

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Youssef Zalal

oldest →

SUBvs Jarno Errens · Aug 24

SUBvs Jack Shore · Nov 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Feb 25

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Oct 25

DECvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 26

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Youssef ZalalMetricIlia Topuria

2.78

Strikes / min

4.81

1.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

64%

Strike defense

64%

1.84

TDs / 15 min

1.96

55%

Takedown defense

93%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Youssef ZalalIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Youssef Zalal(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.4|Blue -6.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Youssef ZalalTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

23% acc · 59%

Head

30% acc · 54%

57% acc · 24%

Body

60% acc · 46%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 88%

Distance

40% acc · 92%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Youssef Zalal rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:16

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control2:05

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 3Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:30

1Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 53

Sig Strikes

13 / 33

33%

Sig Str %

38.3%

40 / 85

Total Strikes

30 / 62

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 9

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:51

Ctrl Time

8:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ilia Topuria	6 / 16	7 / 19	1 / 4	3
1	Youssef Zalal	4 / 21	5 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Ilia Topuria	6 / 9	21 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Youssef Zalal	4 / 10	6 / 17	0 / 2	0
3	Ilia Topuria	1 / 8	2 / 10	3 / 4	1
3	Youssef Zalal	9 / 22	29 / 46	0 / 0	1

Youssef Zalal

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9