Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Guymon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

Yoshiyuki YoshidavsMike GuymonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mike Guymon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYoshiyuki Yoshida: Submission grapplervsMike Guymon: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Mike Guymon wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Mike Guymon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Guymon at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Guymon has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Guymon has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoshiyuki Yoshida (53.5%).
Mike Guymon has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Red Corner

Mike Guymon

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoshiyuki YoshidaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Mike GuymonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Roberts · Oct 10

SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Jan 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoshiyuki YoshidaMetricMike Guymon

0.85

Strikes / min

2.75

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

0.79

36%

Strike defense

66%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.87

25%

Takedown defense

54%

2.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.82Δ 4.78 — meaningful gap+1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoshiyuki YoshidaMike Guymon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoshiyuki Yoshida(1 fights)Mike Guymon(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.2|Blue -139.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoshiyuki YoshidaTargetMike Guymon

By target zone

32% acc · 86%

Head

68% acc · 73%

25% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

16% acc · 43%

Distance

31% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida rounds

even

Mike Guymon rounds

Round 1Mike Guymon edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:35

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Mike Guymon edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:25

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 3Mike Guymon edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:02

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 23

Sig Strikes

59 / 79

29.3%

Sig Str %

74.3%

12 / 28

Total Strikes

129 / 149

1 / 6

TDs

3 / 3

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:02

Ctrl Time

7:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Guymon	19 / 30	37 / 48	1 / 1	0
1	Yoshiyuki Yoshida	1 / 8	2 / 9	0 / 3	1
2	Mike Guymon	14 / 18	32 / 36	2 / 2	2
2	Yoshiyuki Yoshida	5 / 8	6 / 9	0 / 1	1
3	Mike Guymon	26 / 31	60 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Yoshiyuki Yoshida	1 / 7	4 / 10	1 / 2	0

Yoshiyuki Yoshida

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1

Mike Guymon

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3