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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Shields won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Yoshihiro AkiyamavsJake ShieldsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Jake Shields won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYoshihiro Akiyama: WrestlervsJake Shields: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jake Shields wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Jake Shields wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Shields at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoshihiro Akiyama has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yoshihiro Akiyama

Red Corner

Jake Shields

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoshihiro Akiyama

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Leben · Jul 10

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 10

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Aug 11

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 14

vs Alberto Mina · Nov 15

latest

Jake Shields

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Apr 11

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Sep 11

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 13

vs Demian Maia · Oct 13

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoshihiro AkiyamaMetricJake Shields

3.10

Strikes / min

2.45

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

57%

Strike defense

56%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.83

92%

Takedown defense

35%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoshihiro AkiyamaJake Shields

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoshihiro Akiyama(6 fights)Jake Shields(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoshihiro AkiyamaTargetJake Shields

By target zone

32% acc · 88%

Head

35% acc · 54%

67% acc · 6%

Body

75% acc · 26%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

67% acc · 20%

By position

31% acc · 85%

Distance

45% acc · 87%

71% acc · 15%

Clinch

48% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoshihiro Akiyama rounds

even

Jake Shields rounds

Round 1Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:20

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:04

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Jake Shields edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:43

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 97

Sig Strikes

91 / 201

33%

Sig Str %

46.3%

52 / 118

Total Strikes

119 / 232

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 14

50%

TD %

13.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Shields	29 / 77	37 / 86	0 / 5
1	Yoshihiro Akiyama	6 / 29	8 / 32	1 / 2
2	Jake Shields	34 / 76	43 / 85	0 / 4
2	Yoshihiro Akiyama	15 / 39	22 / 46	1 / 2
3	Jake Shields	28 / 48	39 / 61	2 / 5
3	Yoshihiro Akiyama	12 / 29	22 / 40	0 / 0

Yoshihiro Akiyama

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Jake Shields

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7