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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alberto Mina won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Yoshihiro AkiyamavsAlberto MinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · Saturday, November 28, 2015Seoul, South Korea

Official fight result

Alberto Mina won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yoshihiro Akiyama wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Alberto Mina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoshihiro Akiyama at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoshihiro Akiyama has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Yoshihiro Akiyama has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yoshihiro Akiyama

Red Corner

Alberto Mina

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoshihiro Akiyama

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Leben · Jul 10

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 10

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Aug 11

vs Jake Shields · Feb 12

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 14

latest

Alberto Mina

oldest →

KOvs Shinsho Anzai · Aug 14

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jul 16

vs Ramazan Emeev · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoshihiro AkiyamaMetricAlberto Mina

3.10

Strikes / min

3.23

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.70

57%

Strike defense

47%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.85

92%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoshihiro AkiyamaAlberto Mina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoshihiro Akiyama(6 fights)Alberto Mina(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoshihiro AkiyamaTargetAlberto Mina

By target zone

48% acc · 68%

Head

37% acc · 67%

67% acc · 3%

Body

71% acc · 7%

79% acc · 29%

Leg

86% acc · 26%

By position

51% acc · 85%

Distance

43% acc · 81%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

53% acc · 14%

92% acc · 14%

Ground

75% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoshihiro Akiyama rounds

even

Alberto Mina rounds

Round 1Alberto Mina edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Alberto Mina edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Yoshihiro Akiyama edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control1:14

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 142

Sig Strikes

69 / 153

51.7%

Sig Str %

43%

92 / 163

Total Strikes

84 / 180

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 15

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alberto Mina	17 / 46	17 / 46	1 / 2
1	Yoshihiro Akiyama	18 / 37	18 / 37	0 / 0
2	Alberto Mina	36 / 65	44 / 79	1 / 6
2	Yoshihiro Akiyama	16 / 35	16 / 36	0 / 1
3	Alberto Mina	16 / 42	23 / 55	0 / 7
3	Yoshihiro Akiyama	44 / 70	58 / 90	0 / 0

Yoshihiro Akiyama

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Alberto Mina

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4