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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jarjis Danho won · KO/TKO
Elo1398
Elo1494
Jarjis Danho

Yorgan De CastrovsJarjis DanhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jarjis Danho won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Jarjis Danho wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Jarjis Danho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jarjis Danho at +255 American odds

+$255 profit

$355 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jarjis Danho has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yorgan De Castro
Red Corner
VS
Jarjis Danho
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
1398
Elo
1494
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yorgan De CastroL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Tafa · Oct 19
L
vs Greg Hardy · May 20
L
vs Carlos Felipe · Oct 20
latest
Jarjis Danho
oldest →
L
vs Daniel Omielanczuk · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yorgan De CastroMetricJarjis Danho
2.46
Strikes / min
3.38
3.85
Strikes absorbed / min
5.25
53%
Strike defense
49%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.51
77%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.39evenly matched on net striking-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1487Strikes2.5 vs 3.4Takedowns0.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.6 vs -1.0
Yorgan De CastroJarjis Danho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)Jarjis Danho(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -95.2|Blue +95.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -1680.0|Blue +1680.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yorgan De CastroTargetJarjis Danho

By target zone

2
18% acc · 100%
Head
3
75% acc · 30%
0
Body
1
50% acc · 10%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 60%

By position

2
18% acc · 100%
Distance
8
80% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 10%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yorgan De Castro rounds
0
even
1
Jarjis Danho rounds
Round 1Jarjis Danho edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 11
Sig Strikes
10 / 12
18%
Sig Str %
83%
5 / 15
Total Strikes
10 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jarjis Danho10 / 1210 / 120 / 10
1Yorgan De Castro2 / 115 / 150 / 00

Yorgan De Castro

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4

Jarjis Danho

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2