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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Felipe won · U-DEC
Elo1398
Elo1494
Carlos Felipe

Yorgan De CastrovsCarlos FelipeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Carlos Felipe won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Yorgan De Castro wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Carlos Felipe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yorgan De Castro at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yorgan De Castro
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Felipe
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1398
Elo
1494
39
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yorgan De CastroL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Tafa · Oct 19
L
vs Greg Hardy · May 20
L
KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21
latest
Carlos Felipe
oldest →
L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20
W
vs Justin Tafa · Jan 21
W
vs Jake Collier · Jun 21
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yorgan De CastroMetricCarlos Felipe
2.46
Strikes / min
4.88
3.85
Strikes absorbed / min
5.60
53%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
77%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.39evenly matched on net striking-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1486Strikes2.2 vs 2.9Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -1.0
Yorgan De CastroCarlos Felipe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)Carlos Felipe(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -96.0|Blue +96.0
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yorgan De CastroTargetCarlos Felipe

By target zone

24
33% acc · 50%
Head
39
31% acc · 50%
8
73% acc · 17%
Body
28
74% acc · 36%
16
94% acc · 33%
Leg
11
92% acc · 14%

By position

48
48% acc · 100%
Distance
65
40% acc · 83%
0
0% acc
Clinch
13
81% acc · 17%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yorgan De Castro rounds
1
even
2
Carlos Felipe rounds
Round 1Carlos Felipe edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:30
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 3Carlos Felipe edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control2:43
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 100
Sig Strikes
78 / 177
45.7%
Sig Str %
46%
113 / 174
Total Strikes
88 / 187
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:13
Ctrl Time
1:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Felipe23 / 5723 / 570 / 00
1Yorgan De Castro14 / 2714 / 270 / 00
2Carlos Felipe27 / 7528 / 760 / 00
2Yorgan De Castro28 / 5729 / 580 / 00
3Carlos Felipe28 / 4537 / 540 / 00
3Yorgan De Castro6 / 1670 / 890 / 10

Yorgan De Castro

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4

Carlos Felipe

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5