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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sam Patterson won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Yohan Lainesse
Elo1552
Sam Patterson

Yohan LainessevsSam PattersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Sam Patterson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:03

Model Prediction: Sam Patterson wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Patterson at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sam Patterson threatens submissions; Yohan Lainesse has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • Yohan Lainesse has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yohan Lainesse
Red Corner
VS
Sam Patterson
Blue Corner
-142
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1491
Elo
1552
33
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yohan Lainesse
oldest →
L
KOvs Gabe Green · Apr 22
W
vs Darian Weeks · Sep 22
L
SUBvs Mike Malott · Feb 23
latest
Sam Patterson
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24
W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25
W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25
L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yohan LainesseMetricSam Patterson
2.22
Strikes / min
2.62
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
58%
Strike defense
50%
0.94
TDs / 15 min
0.82
72%
Takedown defense
33%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1482Strikes2.2 vs 2.7Takedowns0.9 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.50 vs 3.90Form-0.4 vs -1.0
Yohan LainesseSam Patterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Yohan Lainesse(4 fights)Sam Patterson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -60.6|Blue +60.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yohan LainesseTargetSam Patterson

By target zone

1
13% acc · 100%
Head
5
50% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

1
11% acc · 100%
Distance
5
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yohan Lainesse rounds
0
even
1
Sam Patterson rounds
Round 1Sam Patterson edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:05
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 9
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
11%
Sig Str %
50%
1 / 9
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sam Patterson5 / 105 / 101 / 11
1Yohan Lainesse1 / 91 / 90 / 00

Yohan Lainesse

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7