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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1382

Elo1522

Yoel RomerovsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYoel Romero: Well-roundedvsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Yoel Romero

Red Corner

Paulo Costa

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1382

Elo

1522

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoel RomeroL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoel RomeroMetricPaulo Costa

3.44

Strikes / min

6.15

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

60%

Strike defense

49%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

0.30

78%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoel RomeroPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoel Romero(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -140.3|Blue +140.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoel RomeroTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

39% acc · 77%

Head

45% acc · 57%

55% acc · 9%

Body

79% acc · 39%

90% acc · 14%

Leg

71% acc · 4%

By position

118

43% acc · 94%

Distance

110

54% acc · 93%

88% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoel Romero rounds

even

Paulo Costa rounds

Round 1Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:01

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:05

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

125 / 284

Sig Strikes

118 / 213

43.7%

Sig Str %

55%

125 / 284

Total Strikes

118 / 213

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paulo Costa	37 / 69	37 / 69	0 / 0
1	Yoel Romero	32 / 69	32 / 69	0 / 2
2	Paulo Costa	37 / 71	37 / 71	0 / 0
2	Yoel Romero	40 / 91	40 / 91	1 / 1
3	Paulo Costa	44 / 73	44 / 73	0 / 0
3	Yoel Romero	53 / 124	53 / 124	0 / 1

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11