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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Yoel Romero won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1382

Elo1433

Yoel RomerovsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:48

Style matchupYoel Romero: Well-roundedvsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Luke Rockhold has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yoel Romero

Red Corner

Luke Rockhold

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1382

Elo

1433

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoel RomeroL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Luke RockholdL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoel RomeroMetricLuke Rockhold

3.44

Strikes / min

4.10

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

60%

Strike defense

53%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

0.70

78%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoel RomeroLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoel Romero(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.8|Blue +51.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoel RomeroTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

38% acc · 51%

Head

25% acc · 49%

59% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 22%

80% acc · 27%

Leg

76% acc · 29%

By position

42% acc · 69%

Distance

37% acc · 98%

72% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoel Romero rounds

even

Luke Rockhold rounds

Round 1Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:06

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 92

Sig Strikes

45 / 119

48.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

52 / 99

Total Strikes

45 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Rockhold	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0
1	Yoel Romero	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Luke Rockhold	17 / 51	17 / 51	0 / 0
2	Yoel Romero	24 / 46	31 / 53	0 / 0
3	Luke Rockhold	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
3	Yoel Romero	11 / 19	11 / 19	0 / 0

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11