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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1382

Elo1454

Yoel RomerovsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:23

Style matchupYoel Romero: Well-roundedvsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yoel Romero

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1382

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yoel RomeroMetricDerek Brunson

3.44

Strikes / min

3.51

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

60%

Strike defense

51%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

3.14

78%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yoel RomeroDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yoel Romero(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.7|Blue +72.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yoel RomeroTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

50% acc · 45%

Head

29% acc · 53%

78% acc · 42%

Body

17% acc · 3%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

85% acc · 45%

By position

53% acc · 52%

Distance

42% acc · 92%

75% acc · 10%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

85% acc · 38%

Ground

33% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yoel Romero rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:51

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 94

Sig Strikes

38 / 94

59%

Sig Str %

40%

87 / 122

Total Strikes

56 / 112

0 / 4

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

2:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derek Brunson	12 / 28	16 / 32	2 / 2
1	Yoel Romero	11 / 19	11 / 19	0 / 2
2	Derek Brunson	10 / 32	24 / 46	1 / 2
2	Yoel Romero	12 / 28	36 / 53	0 / 2
3	Derek Brunson	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 1
3	Yoel Romero	37 / 47	40 / 50	0 / 0

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21