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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yazmin Jauregui won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1509

Yazmin JaureguivsSam HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Yazmin Jauregui won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYazmin Jauregui: Pressure fightervsSam Hughes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Yazmin Jauregui wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yazmin Jauregui at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yazmin Jauregui has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yazmin Jauregui

Red Corner

Sam Hughes

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1498

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yazmin JaureguiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 22

KOvs Istela Nunes · Dec 22

KOvs Denise Gomes · Jul 23

SUBvs Ketlen Souza · Sep 24

latest

Sam Hughes

oldest →

vs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 23

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Aug 24

vs Stephanie Luciano · Mar 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · Sep 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yazmin JaureguiMetricSam Hughes

6.64

Strikes / min

4.41

5.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.12

100%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yazmin JaureguiSam Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yazmin Jauregui(5 fights)Sam Hughes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.2|Blue +11.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yazmin JaureguiTargetSam Hughes

By target zone

26% acc · 55%

Head

28% acc · 48%

57% acc · 26%

Body

71% acc · 20%

60% acc · 19%

Leg

87% acc · 31%

By position

33% acc · 89%

Distance

42% acc · 96%

63% acc · 11%

Clinch

43% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yazmin Jauregui rounds

even

Sam Hughes rounds

Round 1Yazmin Jauregui edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Yazmin Jauregui edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 269

Sig Strikes

83 / 197

34.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

97 / 272

Total Strikes

88 / 206

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Hughes	19 / 47	21 / 52	0 / 3
1	Yazmin Jauregui	28 / 88	29 / 89	0 / 0
2	Sam Hughes	36 / 75	39 / 78	0 / 2
2	Yazmin Jauregui	32 / 91	33 / 92	0 / 0
3	Sam Hughes	28 / 75	28 / 76	0 / 1
3	Yazmin Jauregui	34 / 90	35 / 91	0 / 0

Yazmin Jauregui

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Sam Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12