← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Souza won · SUB R1

Elo1498

Elo1523

Yazmin JaureguivsKetlen SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Souza won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:02

Style matchupYazmin Jauregui: Pressure fightervsKetlen Souza: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Ketlen Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yazmin Jauregui at -535 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yazmin Jauregui has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yazmin Jauregui

Red Corner

Ketlen Souza

Blue Corner

-535

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1498

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yazmin Jauregui

oldest →

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 22

KOvs Istela Nunes · Dec 22

KOvs Denise Gomes · Jul 23

vs Sam Hughes · Feb 24

latest

Ketlen SouzaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Apr 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Feb 26

KOvs Ariane Carnelossi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yazmin JaureguiMetricKetlen Souza

6.64

Strikes / min

4.01

5.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.46

100%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yazmin JaureguiKetlen Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yazmin Jauregui(5 fights)Ketlen Souza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.0|Blue +25.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yazmin JaureguiTargetKetlen Souza

By target zone

35% acc · 51%

Head

48% acc · 57%

80% acc · 23%

Body

86% acc · 29%

82% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

44% acc · 83%

Distance

53% acc · 76%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 19%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yazmin Jauregui rounds

even

Ketlen Souza rounds

Round 1Yazmin Jauregui edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 73

Sig Strikes

21 / 35

47%

Sig Str %

60%

35 / 73

Total Strikes

21 / 35

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ketlen Souza	21 / 35	21 / 35	0 / 0	1
1	Yazmin Jauregui	35 / 73	35 / 73	0 / 2	0

Yazmin Jauregui

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7