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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yazmin Jauregui won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1498

Elo1475

Yazmin JaureguivsIstela NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Yazmin Jauregui won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:06

Style matchupYazmin Jauregui: Pressure fightervsIstela Nunes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui wins(87.9%)

Actual result: Yazmin Jauregui wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yazmin Jauregui at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Istela Nunes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yazmin Jauregui has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yazmin Jauregui

Red Corner

Istela Nunes

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1498

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yazmin Jauregui

oldest →

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 22

KOvs Denise Gomes · Jul 23

vs Sam Hughes · Feb 24

SUBvs Ketlen Souza · Sep 24

latest

Istela NunesL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Oct 21

vs Sam Hughes · Apr 22

KOvs Viktoriia Dudakova · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yazmin JaureguiMetricIstela Nunes

6.64

Strikes / min

4.28

5.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

54%

Strike defense

59%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yazmin JaureguiIstela Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yazmin Jauregui(5 fights)Istela Nunes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.3|Blue -23.3

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yazmin JaureguiTargetIstela Nunes

By target zone

40% acc · 81%

Head

49% acc · 56%

55% acc · 9%

Body

86% acc · 33%

88% acc · 10%

Leg

80% acc · 11%

By position

35% acc · 57%

Distance

56% acc · 78%

58% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

67% acc · 33%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yazmin Jauregui rounds

even

Istela Nunes rounds

Round 1Istela Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Yazmin Jauregui edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control2:44

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 154

Sig Strikes

36 / 60

44.5%

Sig Str %

60%

103 / 200

Total Strikes

39 / 63

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:50

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Istela Nunes	24 / 40	25 / 41	0 / 0
1	Yazmin Jauregui	27 / 86	27 / 86	0 / 3
2	Istela Nunes	12 / 20	14 / 22	0 / 0
2	Yazmin Jauregui	40 / 68	76 / 114	0 / 0

Yazmin Jauregui

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Istela Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5