← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1492

Yaotzin MezavsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYaotzin Meza: Submission grapplervsSergio Pettis: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -660 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Pettis has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yaotzin Meza

Red Corner

Sergio Pettis

Blue Corner

+540

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-660

(87%)

1356

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yaotzin MezaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chad Mendes · Dec 12

SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13

vs Damian Stasiak · Apr 15

vs Sam Sicilia · Jul 15

vs Arnold Allen · Feb 16

latest

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yaotzin MezaMetricSergio Pettis

1.43

Strikes / min

3.88

1.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

64%

Strike defense

65%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.85

18%

Takedown defense

67%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yaotzin MezaSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.5|Blue +135.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yaotzin MezaTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

30% acc · 63%

Head

23% acc · 52%

50% acc · 14%

Body

45% acc · 19%

91% acc · 23%

Leg

84% acc · 30%

By position

37% acc · 95%

Distance

33% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yaotzin Meza rounds

even

Sergio Pettis rounds

Round 1Yaotzin Meza edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:20

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 114

Sig Strikes

54 / 161

40.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

46 / 121

Total Strikes

60 / 168

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Pettis	13 / 54	13 / 54	0 / 0
1	Yaotzin Meza	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 1
2	Sergio Pettis	25 / 61	31 / 68	0 / 0
2	Yaotzin Meza	14 / 54	14 / 54	0 / 3
3	Sergio Pettis	16 / 46	16 / 46	0 / 0
3	Yaotzin Meza	11 / 22	14 / 29	1 / 2

Yaotzin Meza

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14