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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Fredy Serrano won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1359
Elo1359

Yao ZhikuivsFredy SerranoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · Saturday, November 28, 2015Seoul, South Korea

Official fight result

Fredy Serrano won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Model Prediction: Fredy Serrano wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Fredy Serrano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fredy Serrano at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Fredy Serrano has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Fredy Serrano has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yao Zhikui
Red Corner
VS
Fredy Serrano
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1359
Elo
1359
35
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'3"
162.56 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yao Zhikui
oldest →
L
vs Royston Wee · Aug 14
W
vs Nolan Ticman · May 15
L
vs Jenel Lausa · Nov 16
latest
Fredy SerranoL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Bentley Syler · Mar 15
L
vs Ryan Benoit · Jul 16
L
vs Hector Sandoval · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yao ZhikuiMetricFredy Serrano
1.44
Strikes / min
1.58
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
1.89
48%
Strike defense
61%
0.66
TDs / 15 min
2.84
58%
Takedown defense
84%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.38Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1516Strikes18.0 vs 20.0Takedowns0.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Yao ZhikuiFredy Serrano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Yao Zhikui(4 fights)Fredy Serrano(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yao ZhikuiTargetFredy Serrano

By target zone

1
20% acc · 100%
Head
1
50% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 67%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
67% acc · 67%
1
50% acc · 100%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Yao Zhikui rounds
0
even
1
Fredy Serrano rounds
Round 1Fredy Serrano edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:02
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 6
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
16%
Sig Str %
60%
1 / 6
Total Strikes
7 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Fredy Serrano3 / 57 / 111 / 20
1Yao Zhikui1 / 61 / 60 / 00

Yao Zhikui

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights4

Fredy Serrano

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4