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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yancy Medeiros won · SUB R2

Elo1403

Elo1358

Yancy MedeirosvsSean SpencerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Yancy Medeiros won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:49

Style matchupYancy Medeiros: Pressure fightervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Yancy Medeiros wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Yancy Medeiros wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yancy Medeiros at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros threatens submissions; Sean Spencer has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Sean Spencer has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Yancy Medeiros

Red Corner

Sean Spencer

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1403

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Sean SpencerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Nov 13

vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14

vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yancy MedeirosMetricSean Spencer

4.36

Strikes / min

4.24

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

47%

Strike defense

60%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.14

73%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yancy MedeirosSean Spencer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.0|Blue -45.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yancy MedeirosTargetSean Spencer

By target zone

22% acc · 59%

Head

9% acc · 35%

43% acc · 18%

Body

38% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

55% acc · 35%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

18% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yancy Medeiros rounds

even

Sean Spencer rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 57

Sig Strikes

17 / 89

50.5%

Sig Str %

27%

17 / 57

Total Strikes

18 / 90

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Spencer	14 / 81	15 / 82	0 / 0	0
1	Yancy Medeiros	14 / 53	14 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Spencer	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Yancy Medeiros	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	1

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8