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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yancy Medeiros won · SUB R2

Elo1403

Elo1495

Yancy MedeirosvsDamon JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · Saturday, August 30, 2014Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Yancy Medeiros won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:54

Style matchupYancy Medeiros: Pressure fightervsDamon Jackson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Yancy Medeiros wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Yancy Medeiros wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yancy Medeiros at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros threatens submissions; Damon Jackson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Yancy Medeiros has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Damon Jackson (52.9%).
Yancy Medeiros has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yancy Medeiros

Red Corner

Damon Jackson

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1403

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Damon JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

SUBvs Jim Miller · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yancy MedeirosMetricDamon Jackson

4.36

Strikes / min

2.96

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

47%

Strike defense

49%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

2.30

73%

Takedown defense

37%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yancy MedeirosDamon Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)Damon Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.6|Blue +92.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yancy MedeirosTargetDamon Jackson

By target zone

42% acc · 55%

Head

32% acc · 55%

73% acc · 38%

Body

45% acc · 25%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

47% acc · 72%

Distance

38% acc · 75%

80% acc · 28%

Clinch

56% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yancy Medeiros rounds

even

Damon Jackson rounds

Round 1Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:34

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 55

Sig Strikes

20 / 49

52%

Sig Str %

38%

36 / 62

Total Strikes

22 / 51

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damon Jackson	15 / 33	17 / 35	0 / 3	0
1	Yancy Medeiros	20 / 37	27 / 44	0 / 0	1
2	Damon Jackson	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 2	0
2	Yancy Medeiros	9 / 18	9 / 18	0 / 0	1

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12