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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Yana Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1495

Yana SantosvsMiesha TateUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Yana Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yana Santos wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Yana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yana Santos at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yana Santos

Red Corner

Miesha Tate

Blue Corner

+128

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-152

(60%)

1527

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yana SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Holly Holm · Mar 23

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 23

vs Chelsea Chandler · Aug 24

vs Macy Chiasson · Oct 25

latest

Miesha Tate

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 16

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yana SantosMetricMiesha Tate

4.41

Strikes / min

2.62

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

52%

Strike defense

51%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

1.97

51%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yana SantosMiesha Tate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yana Santos(5 fights)Miesha Tate(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.8|Blue -31.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yana SantosTargetMiesha Tate

By target zone

43% acc · 56%

Head

28% acc · 63%

94% acc · 23%

Body

47% acc · 20%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

70% acc · 18%

By position

49% acc · 71%

Distance

29% acc · 73%

90% acc · 29%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

Ground

60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yana Santos rounds

even

Miesha Tate rounds

Round 1Yana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:25

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Yana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:21

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 117

Sig Strikes

40 / 115

51%

Sig Str %

33%

87 / 143

Total Strikes

108 / 204

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

5:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miesha Tate	22 / 55	33 / 72	0 / 2
1	Yana Santos	31 / 61	43 / 76	0 / 1
2	Miesha Tate	13 / 43	18 / 48	0 / 3
2	Yana Santos	31 / 44	39 / 52	0 / 0
3	Miesha Tate	5 / 17	57 / 84	1 / 2
3	Yana Santos	4 / 12	5 / 15	0 / 0

Yana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14