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Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1493

Yana SantosvsKarol RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Karol Rosa has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yana Santos

Red Corner

Karol Rosa

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yana SantosW3 streak

oldest →

vs Holly Holm · Mar 23

vs Chelsea Chandler · Aug 24

vs Miesha Tate · May 25

vs Macy Chiasson · Oct 25

latest

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yana SantosMetricKarol Rosa

4.41

Strikes / min

5.88

3.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

52%

Strike defense

49%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

1.17

51%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yana SantosKarol Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yana Santos(5 fights)Karol Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.1|Blue -34.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yana SantosTargetKarol Rosa

By target zone

29% acc · 21%

Head

40% acc · 58%

89% acc · 44%

Body

86% acc · 27%

83% acc · 35%

Leg

71% acc · 15%

By position

56% acc · 66%

Distance

45% acc · 73%

74% acc · 34%

Clinch

86% acc · 18%

Ground

60% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yana Santos rounds

even

Karol Rosa rounds

Round 1Yana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:19

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Yana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:34

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 156

Sig Strikes

66 / 130

60.7%

Sig Str %

49%

151 / 213

Total Strikes

117 / 181

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karol Rosa	12 / 26	35 / 49	0 / 0
1	Yana Santos	33 / 54	68 / 89	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	20 / 44	42 / 66	0 / 0
2	Yana Santos	29 / 44	48 / 64	0 / 0
3	Karol Rosa	34 / 60	40 / 66	1 / 1
3	Yana Santos	33 / 58	35 / 60	0 / 0

Yana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12