← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yan Xiaonan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1492

Yan XiaonanvsTabatha RicciUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Yan Xiaonan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYan Xiaonan: Well-roundedvsTabatha Ricci: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yan Xiaonan

Red Corner

Tabatha Ricci

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1500

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan XiaonanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 22

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Tabatha RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Pennington · May 24

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan XiaonanMetricTabatha Ricci

4.69

Strikes / min

4.00

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

4.83

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.84

TDs / 15 min

2.51

64%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-0.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan XiaonanTabatha Ricci

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.5|Blue -7.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan XiaonanTargetTabatha Ricci

By target zone

38% acc · 58%

Head

9% acc · 53%

74% acc · 32%

Body

25% acc · 7%

89% acc · 10%

Leg

43% acc · 40%

By position

48% acc · 99%

Distance

15% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Xiaonan rounds

even

Tabatha Ricci rounds

Round 1Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 161

Sig Strikes

15 / 103

47%

Sig Str %

12.3%

89 / 172

Total Strikes

17 / 106

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tabatha Ricci	0 / 13	0 / 13	0 / 1
1	Yan Xiaonan	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0
2	Tabatha Ricci	8 / 30	10 / 33	1 / 1
2	Yan Xiaonan	25 / 54	34 / 63	0 / 0
3	Tabatha Ricci	7 / 60	7 / 60	0 / 1
3	Yan Xiaonan	37 / 67	39 / 69	0 / 0

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12