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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · KO/TKO

Elo1500

Elo1497

Yan XiaonanvsCarla EsparzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

KO/TKO

Style matchupYan Xiaonan: Well-roundedvsCarla Esparza: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at -137 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yan Xiaonan has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yan Xiaonan

Red Corner

Carla Esparza

Blue Corner

-137

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+117

(46%)

1500

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan Xiaonan

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michelle Waterson · May 20

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan XiaonanMetricCarla Esparza

4.69

Strikes / min

2.19

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

60%

Strike defense

54%

0.84

TDs / 15 min

3.28

64%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan XiaonanCarla Esparza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan XiaonanTargetCarla Esparza

By target zone

40% acc · 80%

Head

82% acc · 100%

100% acc · 20%

Body

Leg

By position

29% acc · 40%

Distance

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 60%

Ground

84% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Xiaonan rounds

even

Carla Esparza rounds

Round 1Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:52Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 11

Sig Strikes

27 / 33

45%

Sig Str %

81.5%

31 / 41

Total Strikes

170 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carla Esparza	13 / 15	104 / 117	2 / 2
1	Yan Xiaonan	2 / 5	24 / 29	0 / 0
2	Carla Esparza	14 / 18	66 / 77	1 / 1
2	Yan Xiaonan	3 / 6	7 / 12	0 / 0

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15