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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yan Xiaonan won · Decision R3

Elo1500

Elo1506

Yan XiaonanvsAngela HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Yan Xiaonan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYan Xiaonan: Well-roundedvsAngela Hill: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yan Xiaonan

Red Corner

Angela Hill

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1500

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan Xiaonan

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Angela Hill

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Aug 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 25

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 25

vs Fatima Kline · Nov 25

DECvs Xiong Jingnan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan XiaonanMetricAngela Hill

4.69

Strikes / min

5.37

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

5.02

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.84

TDs / 15 min

0.75

64%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan XiaonanAngela Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)Angela Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.3|Blue +6.3

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan XiaonanTargetAngela Hill

By target zone

32% acc · 68%

Head

40% acc · 62%

50% acc · 12%

Body

81% acc · 30%

68% acc · 20%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

44% acc · 79%

47% acc · 9%

Clinch

87% acc · 18%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Xiaonan rounds

even

Angela Hill rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:46

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:05

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 249

Sig Strikes

71 / 144

36.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

105 / 264

Total Strikes

78 / 151

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:51

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Angela Hill	12 / 28	19 / 35	1 / 2	1
1	Yan Xiaonan	12 / 34	22 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Angela Hill	25 / 51	25 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Yan Xiaonan	36 / 93	37 / 94	1 / 1	0
3	Angela Hill	34 / 65	34 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Yan Xiaonan	46 / 122	46 / 122	0 / 0	0

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13

Angela Hill

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights30