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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1499

Yan CabralvsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYan Cabral: WrestlervsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yan Cabral wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Cabral at -560 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Cummings has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yan Cabral

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+475

(17%)

1357

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan CabralL2 streak

oldest →

vs David Mitchell · Oct 13

SUBvs Naoyuki Kotani · Oct 14

vs Johnny Case · Nov 15

KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16

latest

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan CabralMetricZak Cummings

2.02

Strikes / min

2.96

1.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

62%

Strike defense

55%

2.89

TDs / 15 min

0.62

37%

Takedown defense

66%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan CabralZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Cabral(5 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -142.4|Blue +142.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan CabralTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

58% acc · 91%

Head

25% acc · 61%

Body

71% acc · 18%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

86% acc · 21%

By position

35% acc · 35%

Distance

23% acc · 43%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

100% acc · 65%

Ground

52% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Cabral rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:47

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:19

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 3Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:02

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 38

Sig Strikes

28 / 83

50.3%

Sig Str %

28%

44 / 59

Total Strikes

50 / 108

1 / 9

TDs

3 / 3

8.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:08

Ctrl Time

6:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Cummings	1 / 12	7 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Yan Cabral	17 / 20	24 / 27	1 / 4	1
2	Zak Cummings	14 / 40	26 / 53	3 / 3	0
2	Yan Cabral	4 / 12	13 / 21	0 / 4	0
3	Zak Cummings	13 / 31	17 / 36	0 / 0	1
3	Yan Cabral	2 / 6	7 / 11	0 / 1	1

Yan Cabral

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14