Lightweight

3 Rounds

Reza Madadi won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1357

Elo1360

Yan CabralvsReza MadadiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Reza Madadi won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:56

Style matchupYan Cabral: WrestlervsReza Madadi: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Reza Madadi wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Reza Madadi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reza Madadi at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Reza Madadi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Reza Madadi has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yan Cabral

Red Corner

Reza Madadi

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1357

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan Cabral

oldest →

vs David Mitchell · Oct 13

vs Zak Cummings · May 14

SUBvs Naoyuki Kotani · Oct 14

vs Johnny Case · Nov 15

latest

Reza MadadiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Oct 12

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Apr 13

vs Norman Parke · Oct 15

vs Joe Duffy · Mar 17

vs Joaquim Silva · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan CabralMetricReza Madadi

2.02

Strikes / min

2.51

1.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

62%

Strike defense

66%

2.89

TDs / 15 min

3.17

37%

Takedown defense

89%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan CabralReza Madadi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Cabral(5 fights)Reza Madadi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan CabralTargetReza Madadi

By target zone

27% acc · 59%

Head

31% acc · 67%

85% acc · 34%

Body

100% acc · 30%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

23% acc · 44%

Distance

29% acc · 52%

77% acc · 53%

Clinch

68% acc · 48%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Cabral rounds

even

Reza Madadi rounds

Round 1Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:48

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:27

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 3Reza Madadi edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:54

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 85

Sig Strikes

27 / 68

34%

Sig Str %

39.7%

61 / 117

Total Strikes

36 / 78

1 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

6.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:09

Ctrl Time

3:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reza Madadi	3 / 16	5 / 18	0 / 1
1	Yan Cabral	10 / 20	22 / 34	1 / 5
2	Reza Madadi	13 / 35	20 / 43	1 / 1
2	Yan Cabral	20 / 49	35 / 64	0 / 2
3	Reza Madadi	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0
3	Yan Cabral	2 / 16	4 / 19	0 / 3

Yan Cabral

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Reza Madadi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7