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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yan Cabral won · SUB R2

Elo1357

Elo1355

Yan CabralvsNaoyuki KotaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Yan Cabral won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:06

Model Prediction: Yan Cabral wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Yan Cabral wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Cabral at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yan Cabral enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yan Cabral threatens submissions; Naoyuki Kotani has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Yan Cabral has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Naoyuki Kotani (53.5%).
Yan Cabral has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yan Cabral

Red Corner

Naoyuki Kotani

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+568

(15%)

1357

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan CabralL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Mitchell · Oct 13

vs Zak Cummings · May 14

vs Johnny Case · Nov 15

KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16

latest

Naoyuki KotaniL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Norman Parke · Jul 14

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan CabralMetricNaoyuki Kotani

2.02

Strikes / min

1.02

1.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

62%

Strike defense

50%

2.89

TDs / 15 min

0.83

37%

Takedown defense

46%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan CabralNaoyuki Kotani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Cabral(5 fights)Naoyuki Kotani(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan CabralTargetNaoyuki Kotani

By target zone

45% acc · 91%

Head

17% acc · 60%

50% acc · 9%

Body

0% acc

Leg

29% acc · 40%

By position

27% acc · 27%

Distance

13% acc · 60%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

58% acc · 64%

Ground

67% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Cabral rounds

even

Naoyuki Kotani rounds

Round 1Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:25

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:54

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 24

Sig Strikes

5 / 26

45%

Sig Str %

20.5%

24 / 38

Total Strikes

13 / 34

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:19

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Naoyuki Kotani	3 / 18	11 / 26	1 / 1	0
1	Yan Cabral	7 / 15	17 / 25	0 / 1	0
2	Naoyuki Kotani	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Yan Cabral	4 / 9	7 / 13	2 / 4	1

Yan Cabral

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Naoyuki Kotani

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3