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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Case won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1361

Yan CabralvsJohnny CaseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Johnny Case won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYan Cabral: WrestlervsJohnny Case: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Johnny Case wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Case at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yan Cabral threatens submissions; Johnny Case has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Johnny Case has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yan Cabral

Red Corner

Johnny Case

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1357

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan Cabral

oldest →

vs David Mitchell · Oct 13

vs Zak Cummings · May 14

SUBvs Naoyuki Kotani · Oct 14

KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16

latest

Johnny CaseL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14

KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15

vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan CabralMetricJohnny Case

2.02

Strikes / min

3.95

1.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

62%

Strike defense

61%

2.89

TDs / 15 min

1.70

37%

Takedown defense

72%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan CabralJohnny Case

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Cabral(5 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan CabralTargetJohnny Case

By target zone

40% acc · 68%

Head

39% acc · 62%

50% acc · 6%

Body

59% acc · 22%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

48% acc · 97%

Distance

40% acc · 70%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

Ground

78% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Cabral rounds

even

Johnny Case rounds

Round 1Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:09

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 65

Sig Strikes

74 / 159

45.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

41 / 79

Total Strikes

90 / 177

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johnny Case	14 / 40	19 / 46	0 / 0
1	Yan Cabral	9 / 15	9 / 17	2 / 4
2	Johnny Case	43 / 89	43 / 89	0 / 0
2	Yan Cabral	19 / 40	20 / 42	0 / 1
3	Johnny Case	17 / 30	28 / 42	0 / 0
3	Yan Cabral	3 / 10	12 / 20	1 / 1

Yan Cabral

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6