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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yan Cabral won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1352

Yan CabralvsDavid MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Yan Cabral won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: David Mitchell wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Yan Cabral wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Mitchell at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yan Cabral

Red Corner

David Mitchell

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1357

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yan CabralL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zak Cummings · May 14

SUBvs Naoyuki Kotani · Oct 14

vs Johnny Case · Nov 15

KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16

latest

David Mitchell

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Sep 10

vs Paulo Thiago · Aug 11

vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13

KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yan CabralMetricDavid Mitchell

2.02

Strikes / min

1.74

1.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.06

62%

Strike defense

55%

2.89

TDs / 15 min

0.66

37%

Takedown defense

29%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yan CabralDavid Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yan Cabral(5 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.4|Blue -4.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yan CabralTargetDavid Mitchell

By target zone

53% acc · 94%

Head

20% acc · 80%

Body

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

38% acc · 17%

Distance

16% acc · 60%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

60% acc · 83%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yan Cabral rounds

even

David Mitchell rounds

Round 1Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:24

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Yan Cabral edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:03

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 34

Sig Strikes

5 / 22

51%

Sig Str %

27.7%

59 / 79

Total Strikes

40 / 57

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:07

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Mitchell	1 / 12	9 / 20	0 / 1	0
1	Yan Cabral	4 / 9	16 / 21	1 / 3	0
2	David Mitchell	1 / 3	13 / 15	0 / 0	1
2	Yan Cabral	10 / 13	32 / 36	2 / 2	0
3	David Mitchell	3 / 7	18 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Yan Cabral	4 / 12	11 / 22	1 / 1	1

Yan Cabral

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

David Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5