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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Yair Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1504
Yair Rodriguez
Elo1504
Patricio Freire

Yair RodriguezvsPatricio FreireUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yair Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Patricio Freire
Blue Corner
-164
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
1504
Elo
1504
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair RodriguezL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Max Holloway · Nov 21
W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24
latest
Patricio Freire
oldest →
W
vs Dan Ige · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricPatricio Freire
4.65
Strikes / min
—
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
—
52%
Strike defense
—
0.71
TDs / 15 min
—
59%
Takedown defense
—
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1586 vs 1500Strikes4.7 vs 2.7Takedowns0.7 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.60Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Yair RodriguezPatricio Freire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Patricio Freire(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15

Patricio Freire

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2