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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Yair Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1355

Yair RodriguezvsLeonardo MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Leonardo Morales (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Leonardo Morales

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1504

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Leonardo Morales

oldest →

SUBvs Jose Quinonez · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricLeonardo Morales

4.65

Strikes / min

2.05

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

52%

Strike defense

58%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking0.00

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Leonardo Morales(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +149.1|Blue -149.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetLeonardo Morales

By target zone

34% acc · 59%

Head

30% acc · 39%

50% acc · 24%

Body

71% acc · 30%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 30%

By position

39% acc · 85%

Distance

41% acc · 76%

63% acc · 15%

Clinch

80% acc · 12%

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Leonardo Morales rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:44

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:25

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 83

Sig Strikes

33 / 72

39.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

41 / 92

Total Strikes

47 / 88

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:56

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leonardo Morales	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Yair Rodriguez	12 / 26	12 / 26	1 / 1	3
2	Leonardo Morales	5 / 8	19 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Yair Rodriguez	3 / 9	9 / 17	1 / 4	2
3	Leonardo Morales	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 1	0
3	Yair Rodriguez	19 / 48	20 / 49	0 / 1	0

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Leonardo Morales

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2