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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Yair Rodriguez won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1461

Yair RodriguezvsJosh EmmettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:19

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yair Rodriguez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Josh Emmett

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1504

Elo

1461

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Nov 21

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Josh EmmettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23

vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricJosh Emmett

4.65

Strikes / min

3.67

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

52%

Strike defense

59%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.07

59%

Takedown defense

43%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezJosh Emmett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.7|Blue -42.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetJosh Emmett

By target zone

47% acc · 58%

Head

39% acc · 77%

82% acc · 29%

Body

57% acc · 18%

89% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

54% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 59%

78% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

73% acc · 13%

Ground

80% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Josh Emmett rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 107

Sig Strikes

22 / 52

57.5%

Sig Str %

42%

98 / 143

Total Strikes

35 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Emmett	12 / 26	18 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Yair Rodriguez	26 / 53	32 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Emmett	10 / 26	17 / 34	1 / 4	0
2	Yair Rodriguez	36 / 54	66 / 84	0 / 0	1

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17