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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1473

Yair RodriguezvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1504

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricJeremy Stephens

4.65

Strikes / min

3.13

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

52%

Strike defense

57%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.10

59%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.3|Blue -31.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

51% acc · 68%

Head

46% acc · 70%

61% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 20%

85% acc · 18%

Leg

56% acc · 10%

By position

54% acc · 56%

Distance

37% acc · 38%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

55% acc · 12%

60% acc · 38%

Ground

76% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:50

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control2:20

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 170

Sig Strikes

50 / 95

56.7%

Sig Str %

50.7%

136 / 213

Total Strikes

99 / 156

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

5:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	11 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 0
1	Yair Rodriguez	39 / 70	39 / 70	0 / 3
2	Jeremy Stephens	11 / 22	21 / 34	1 / 1
2	Yair Rodriguez	41 / 73	62 / 97	0 / 0
3	Jeremy Stephens	28 / 49	67 / 97	2 / 3
3	Yair Rodriguez	16 / 27	35 / 46	0 / 0

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27