← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1484

Yair RodriguezvsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Hooker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Yair Rodriguez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dan Hooker has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
Dan Hooker has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1504

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricDan Hooker

4.65

Strikes / min

4.82

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

52%

Strike defense

49%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.68

59%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.8|Blue -19.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

38% acc · 52%

Head

23% acc · 74%

79% acc · 29%

Body

63% acc · 26%

77% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

48% acc · 73%

Distance

16% acc · 47%

43% acc · 12%

Clinch

40% acc · 32%

80% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:19

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 104

Sig Strikes

19 / 79

50.7%

Sig Str %

21.7%

67 / 123

Total Strikes

85 / 162

2 / 9

TDs

1 / 3

25%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

6:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	2 / 14	12 / 24	0 / 1
1	Yair Rodriguez	13 / 23	15 / 25	1 / 4
2	Dan Hooker	11 / 40	20 / 52	0 / 1
2	Yair Rodriguez	22 / 48	23 / 49	1 / 2
3	Dan Hooker	6 / 25	53 / 86	1 / 1
3	Yair Rodriguez	17 / 33	29 / 49	0 / 3

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24