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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1430

Yair RodriguezvsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yair Rodriguez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1504

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricCharles Rosa

4.65

Strikes / min

3.08

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

52%

Strike defense

47%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.67

59%

Takedown defense

38%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.5|Blue -73.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

45% acc · 59%

Head

45% acc · 77%

83% acc · 18%

Body

60% acc · 8%

93% acc · 23%

Leg

86% acc · 15%

By position

49% acc · 70%

Distance

45% acc · 59%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

76% acc · 23%

Ground

59% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:28

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:06

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 100

Sig Strikes

39 / 79

55%

Sig Str %

50.7%

97 / 149

Total Strikes

67 / 117

1 / 1

TDs

5 / 14

100%

TD %

59%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

8:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Rosa	9 / 16	19 / 30	2 / 3	0
1	Yair Rodriguez	10 / 19	13 / 23	0 / 0	1
2	Charles Rosa	15 / 36	15 / 36	1 / 9	0
2	Yair Rodriguez	35 / 62	39 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Charles Rosa	15 / 27	33 / 51	2 / 2	0
3	Yair Rodriguez	11 / 19	45 / 60	0 / 0	1

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13